MRJ

[oldblueeyes]

Un story despre acest program..si mica 'problema' in piata europeana..

http://www.aviationweek.com/Article.asp ... 592017.xml

 

[Boobba-One]

... o vorba zice ca nu esti niciodata mai bine servit decit de tine insati.
mitsubishi se pare ca se conformeaza - si planifica sa lanseze propria companie aeriana regionala.
cu inaugurarea mrj aminata pina prin '17, nu se stie citi clienti vor renunta la comenzi...
drept care, mitsubishi sint in discutii cu jal & ana, ca sa le ofere feeder... bineinteles: operarea noii companii (daca se va ajunge la creearea ei) se va face exclusiv cu mrj...

 

[oldblueeyes]

E varianta japoneza de a masca un mega esec. Face keeping in cultura respectiva e totul, iar un NU nu este niciodata exprimat direct. Companie proprie operata ca feeder e varianta politicoasa de a refuza. Adica da, vrem, dar operat de voi, da , vom putea livra, ca pina la urma sa ajunga la concluzia ca sunt de fapt producator si nu companie de zbor si ca e mai bine pt ambele parti sa se concetreze pe altceva.

 

[Boobba-One]

...corect - pe toata linia.
in plus, modelul asta permite lui jal si ana sa nu isi incarce bilanturile si sa fie finanzati de mitsubishi in direct ... ceea ce este un win-win: adica jal & ana au dublu de cistigat

 

[Boobba-One]

CEREMONIA OFICIALA DE LANSARE A MRJ ... IERI:
http://www.ustream.tv/channel/mrj-roll-out-ceremony-en?acc=Lwd30KCv
... SI AICI COMUNICATUL REUTERS:

Japan rolls out 'long-held dream' with first commercial jet in 50 years

Sat, Oct 18 2014
By Tim Kelly
NAGOYA (Reuters) - To the sound of drums and a children's choir, Mitsubishi Aircraft on Saturday rolled out Japan's first commercial jet in half a century, amid doubts it can attain an ambition to sell more than 2,000 aircraft in a competitive market segment.
Developed by a subsidiary of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries that includes Toyota Corp as a shareholder, the $42-million regional jet, with just under 100 seats, is Japan's second bid to break into the commercial aircraft market.
"This has been a long-held dream of ours, and one that all of Japan has waited for," Hideaki Omiya, chairman of Mitsubishi Heavy, said at a factory in Nagoya in central Japan, which was also the site of the roll-out, 75 years ago, of the prototype of the World War Two-era Zero fighter plane.
The ceremony, attended by about 500 people, kicks off a sprint to complete flight tests before the first delivery of the aircraft in June 2017 to ANA Holdings Inc.
That target is three years later than initially planned.
Japan failed in its last attempt to break into the commercial aircraft market in the 1960s, with a 64-seat turboprop dubbed the YS-11. Only 182 planes, built by a consortium that included Mitsubishi Heavy, were ever made.
Mitsubishi has so far won 191 firm orders from customers including U.S. regional groups Trans States Holdings and SkyWest Inc, and Japan Airlines Co Ltd.
Analysts say the figure is less than the several hundred planes it needs to sell to break even and far behind the orders it needs to overtake the market leader, Brazil's Embraer SA.
That goal presents a "significant challenge," Rob Morris, head of consultancy at aviation market specialist Ascend, said before Saturday's ceremony.
The MRJ's biggest selling point, Mitsubishi says, is its ability to burn a fifth less fuel than aircraft of similar size, thanks to new-generation engines from Pratt & Whitney, a subsidiary of United Technologies Corp.
"With the rollout we are moving from a concept on paper to actual testing of real aircraft," the MRJ's chief engineer, Nobuo Kishi, said in Nagoya, when asked what was the biggest challenge facing the development team.
The current development budget of around $1.8 billion does not account for the costs of delays so far, Kishi added.
CHALLENGING NUMBERS
Mitsubishi, which is also challenging Canada's Bombardier Inc, estimates demand for 5,000 regional jets over the next 20 years, of which it aims to capture a half. Ascend puts its prospects closer to a fifth and forecasts a market for 4,071 jets worth $128.3 billion by 2033.
Embraer will supply 2,489 of those and Mitsubishi 913, with Bombardier and newcomers from Russia and China making up the rest, according to the Ascend Flightglobal Fleet Forecast.
Mitsubishi's problem is Embraer's headstart of more than 1,000 aircraft orders, along with an established reputation for financing, reliability and after-sales service, said Richard Aboulafia, vice president of analysis at consultancy Teal Group.
After the MRJ came into the picture, Embraer said it would upgrade its E-Jets with the same fuel-efficient Pratt & Whitney engines under the name E2. These will be delivered from 2018 only a year after the delayed MRJ.
"The E-Jet E2 will produce economics every bit as competitive as the MRJ, despite the lack of clean-sheet design," said Morris.
Mitsubishi has a better chance of displacing Bombardier, which has bet big on developing its CSeries to break into the market for 150-seat aircraft at the expense of its CRJ regional jets, said Aboulafia.
INDUSTRY AID
The MRJ's biggest success could be helping Japanese industry win component deals because it will prove to Boeing Co and Airbus Group NV that Japan is capable of taking on more work. Doing so could help make up for less work building military aircraft.
Skills acquired on the YS-11 program helped Mitsubishi Heavy and other companies forge ties with Boeing, a major comeback step for an industry dismantled during the U.S. occupation after World War Two.
They have a major work-share on the U.S. plane maker's 777 and 767 aircraft and build 35 percent of the carbon composite 787 Dreamliner. That work employs 22,000 people or two-fifths of Japan's aerospace engineers.
A government official overseeing Japan's aerospace business who spoke to Reuters likened the MRJ project to a 1,000-year-old Shinto renewal rite at the Ise Grand Shrine in central Japan near Mitsubishi's MRJ plant. Shrine buildings are razed and rebuilt every 20 years to pass on traditional building skills.
"A regional jet won't be nearly as important, in terms of profits and technology development, as Japan's hugely important role as an aerostructures provider, particularly to Boeing, " said Aboulafia.
(With addditional reporting by Siva Govindasamy)

 

[oldblueeyes]

Mindria inutilitatii.. imi aduce aminte de filmuletul ala.. mindrie si beton despre maramuresenii care isi fac palate acasa cu piscine de adapat vacile.

 

[Boobba-One]

... o asteptam pe asta ... '70-ul nu o sa mearga nicaieri ... in schimb '90-ul s-ar putea sa aduca programul in break-even. ca si ssj100, mrj au beneficiat de asistenta lui boeing pentru definirea programului de after-sales (mentenenta per-flight-hour, etc...) ...
nu stiu cit o sa cistige mitsubishi direct - dar indirect, cooperarea cu boeing (al carui furnizori sint deja) se va adinci...
ca si e-series / c-series / ssj / comac - mrj va eroda din cota de piata a 737 / 320 ... dar tinind cont ca programul 737 este mai avansat in amortizare decit 32o - asistenta lui boeing este un atac indirect la profitabilitatea lui airbus ... sukhoi & mitsubishi sint nebunii regelui, cum ar veni...

 

[oldblueeyes]

Nu o sa ia din piata 737/320 pentru ca piata respectiva s-a mutat in sus..319 si -700 sunt modele care vor avea soarta lui 318 si -600. Odata cu cresterea numarului de scaune putem spuen ca piata celor doi mari incepe undeva de la 160 de scaune in sus.

Dar indirect vor ciupi ceva din C100 si vor crea probleme Bombardier cu C300, ca sa nu mai vorbim de faptul ca asa nu vor avea resurse pentru un C500, care fiind un clean sheet design ar da serioase dureri de cap celor doi mari si i-ar obliga exact la ceea ce nu vor.. sa gindeasca de la zero categoria, in loc sa arunce investitiile pe constructorii de motoare.

 

[Boobba-One]

piata exista, doar ca atit Boeing cit si Airbus nu mai vor sa o segmenteze ... si asta pentru ca, mai ales din cauza costurilor de carburant, a fost de prin '00 incoace un segment cu CASMuri inalte. segmentul a avut de suferit si din faptul ca A & B au dezvoltat programele 318/-600 mai mult pentru a da lovitura de gratie lui MDC, taind aripile programului MD95, decit pentru a avea un succes comercial in sine.
... dar progresele facute in motorizari si materiale, combinate cu un pret al carburantului care structural e in scadere semnificativa - readuc segmentul la ordinea zilei.
e o piata de 20 ani pe care Boeing o vede(a) intre 2'500 si 3'800 aparate, Embraer la 3'900 (ei segmenteaza 90-130pax), Airbus la 4'200 aparate, JADC la 6'800 si Bombardier la 7'200.
este piata ideala a city-hoppingului biz sau leisure - pe care aparatele din segmentul asta risca sa dea yielduri bune.

 

[Boobba-One]

MRJ pleaca de la Paris cu ... 0 (da: zero!) comenzi. E clar, avionul nu a zburat inca, si speram ca de data asta Mitsubishi vor putea respecta termenul autoimpus, care este sep-oct15.
E totusi pacat ca nu au reusit sa plaseze macar 1-2 comenzi simbolice.
Pina si Sukhoi, care sufera din cauza numelui, a reusit sa vinda trei SSJ100 in timpul salonului...

 

[oldblueeyes]

MRJ e o ambitie japoneza de a arata ca pot ceva.
Eu regional jet mare, care sa concureze ca un clean sheet design A330NEO e exact ceea ce va avea nevoie regiunea in urmatorii 20-30 de ani.Industria japoneza produce componente de 787 deci know how ar fi...

 

[Boobba-One]

fiecare din rarele stiri ce ne vin de la Mitsubishi este ca sa ne spuna ca... mai intirzie putintel. iarasi au aminat zborul - de doua saptamini, pe mijlocul lui noiembrie...
intr-o buna zi, cineva tot va trebui sa comita un mic sepuku - pentru ca isi cam pierd fata...

 

[raduvisitor]

Da, industria de profil japoneza nu o duce grozav nici cu Kawasaki C-2. Sunt de asteptat intarzieri.

 

[oldblueeyes]

Vrei sa spui industria de componente(ma refer la partea civila, evident).

MRJ e un proiect nascut din mindrie orientala si nimeni nu are curajul sa il opreasca.

 

[Boobba-One]

MRJ mai este nascut si dintr-o necesitate: cea de-a da un rost componentei aeronautice a lui Mitsubishi...
Pina in 2011 aveau in mina constructia lui F2 Viper Zero (nimeni altul decit F16 made in JP). Dupa care ar fi ramas cu o gramada de specialisti care nu ar prea fi avut nimic de facut.
Asa ca a fost creata Mitsubishi Aircraft Corporation... al carei scop este conceptia / constructia MRJ-ului...

 

[raduvisitor]

Incep sa testeze si un prototip (pentru urmatoarea generatie multirol): Japanese ATD-X Shinshin stealth fighter aircraft ready for first flight | Defence blog
Ramane de urmarit cu ce rezultate.

Apropo de componente si sisteme (astazi militare, maine si in aplicatii civile), interesant acest XP-1 aflat in productie (Kawasaki), pe cat de "clasic" arata, pe atat de avangardist pare a fi:

The aircraft incorporates the fly-by-light (FBL) system which offers increased resistance to high electromagnetic interference (EMI). The FBL system uses fibre optics to transfer flight control commands at higher speeds.

Kawasaki XP-1 Maritime Patrol Aircraft

Au inceput sa iasa cu el si in lume: Kawasaki P-1 Flies At Air Tattoo

 

[Boobba-One]

ATD-X e studiul premergator pentru un multirol de generatia 5. Care ar trebui sa fie operational undeva prin 2035...
Americanii spera ca prin 2025-30 sa aiba deja operational FAXXul - de generatia 6.
Fundatia de Cercetari Avansate din Rusia studiaza si ea mai multe optiuni pentru aparate de generatia 6.
Japonezii ar trebui sa incerce sa sara o generatie si sa lucreze la un multirol de generatia 6, daca vor sa fie la paritate cu chinezii - care au deja un grup de studiu pe aceasta tema si care, in mod sigur, vor gasi undeva niste blueprinturi pe care le vor traduce din engleza sau rusa in limba mandarina - si le vor pune repede in realizare...

 

[oldblueeyes]

Greu cu mentalitatea japoneza...ei sunt foarte buni la a duce la maturitate si excelenta operationala o tehnologie existenta, dar exista frica de tehnologii noi sau lucruri "out of the box"

 

[Boobba-One]

Viziunea lipsita de actiune nu este decit un vis.
Actiunea lipsita de viziune este un cosmar.
E un proverb japonez ce se aplica bine acestei povesti ... japoneze...

 

[raduvisitor]

In aceeasi nota, a venit si o veste: Northrop Grumman Wins USAF Bomber Contract